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A Modeling and the Analysis of Petroleum Products in Korean Energy System Using Integrated Assessment Model
- Author(s)
- Yurnaidi, Zulfikar
- Advisor
- Suduk Kim
- Department
- 일반대학원 에너지시스템학과
- Publisher
- The Graduate School, Ajou University
- Publication Year
- 2016-08
- Language
- eng
- Alternative Abstract
- Korea has experienced strong GDP growth for the past few decades, especially from the 1960s to 1990s. As the 14th largest economy in the world, Korea is among the top ten energy consumers in the world. Lacking sufficient energy resources, Korea depends heavily on imports, which raises energy security issues. Korea also needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emission, as pledged at the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP). Petroleum products take the largest share in Korean final energy consumption, followed by electricity and coal. Domestic petroleum products consumption mostly comes from the industry and transportation sectors. Although it has one of the largest refinery facilities in the world, Korea imports nearly all of its oil needs. The aim of this study is to model and analyze petroleum products in Korea, from their production through refineries to consumption in end-use sectors. Petroleum products modeling is mainly focused on the industry and transportation sectors, for these sectors consume the largest share of petroleum products. A simple model of export is developed, too. One of the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), is chosen as the main analysis tool. GCAM integrates socioeconomics, energy, agriculture, land use, and climate system, and has been widely used for policy analysis. Currently, though, GCAM does not model petroleum products in detail. To augment the current model, seven fuels are modeled: gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, bunker fuel, naphtha, jet fuel, other liquids, and biodiesel. Before starting the disaggregation process, the current system of GCAM as an integrated assessment model is investigated and reviewed. Then, the current ‘refined liquids’ in GCAM is disaggregated based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Balance. Since petroleum products are consumed in all end-use sectors, as well as in power generation, the whole energy system is modified. Characteristics of petroleum products consumption by each energy sector are extracted from the Korean Energy Consumption Survey. The share of petroleum products in the power sector is very small, which is only around 3%. In industry, most of petroleum products consumption is as feedstocks. Due to the importance of the industry sector, its current GCAM representation is disaggregated. There are 37 sub-industries modeled. These sub-industries are then re-aggregated into 11 industries for reporting purposes. Among sub-industries, petrochemical industries consume most of the energy (mainly as industrial feedstocks) followed by non-metallic, iron and steel, and non-ferrous sub-industries. The disaggregation of petroleum products provides more insight into the interaction of energy and technologies in GCAM energy system. For example, in road transportation, it is observable that electric car of Small Truck and SUV class could replace the LPG and diesel-fueled cars by the end of the century, which is not possible using the original GCAM. Price structure scenario is applied using information from the highly taxed Korean energy system. This results in reduced petroleum products consumption, especially in transportation. The penetration of electric and gas cars is expected to be accelerated, too, to some extent under this market condition. Following up the above example, electric cars of the Small Truck and SUV class are expected to topple the LPG and diesel-fueled cars by 2085, 15 years faster than original simulation result. Carbon policy is exercised in the form of both carbon tax and carbon cap. Carbon tax is set with a range of $5-50 (1990 $/tC) during 2015-2100 period. In 2030, the emission is reduced by 10.34 MTC or 5.7% of reference scenario. Meanwhile the carbon cap is aimed at reaching 30% reduction of CO2 emission in 2030. It is found that a carbon tax of $105.24 (1990 $/tC) in 2030 is required to achieve such a target. Future research includes combining detailed transportation modeling (adding taxi, local and intercity transportation) and petroleum products disaggregation; global modeling of petroleum products and export-import modeling; and providing linkage between refinery and petrochemical industries with GDP.
- Fulltext
- Appears in Collections:
- Graduate School of Ajou University > Department of Energy Systems > 4. Theses(Ph.D)
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