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Special Graduate Schools
Graduate School of International Studies
Department of International Trade
International Trade
3. Theses(Master)
케냐의 무역 규제 완화 정책 - 경제 성장 향상을 위한 수출 강화
- Alternative Title
- Okoth, Robert Onduu
- Author(s)
- Okoth, Robert Onduu
- Alternative Author(s)
- Okoth, Robert Onduu
- Advisor
- 정경일
- Department
- 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- Publisher
- Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University
- Publication Year
- 2006-08
- Language
- eng
- Alternative Abstract
- ABSTRACT Despite Trade liberalization policy in which the government of Kenya has deliberately pushed for exports and opened its domestic market for foreign competition, the country has continued to experience difficulties in achieving high economic growth rates. This study explores the hypothesis that Kenya's Trade Liberalization Policy in which Pushing for Exports has taken center stage has only increased the probability of achieving higher economic growth and a lot more need to be done to achieve that goal. Adopting the ex-post approach and using the time series models, ordinary least squares (OLS) growth regression analysis, the gravity model, and intuitively applying the Heckscher-Ohlin model on factor endowment to assess the trade patterns between Kenya and its trading partners, this study affirms the hypothesis that the current trade liberalization policy and export promotion strategies have the potential of enhancing Kenya’s economic growth rate, but the government should address the identified challenges and drawbacks for the export-led growth policy to realize its objective. Limitations of the models used not withstanding, the results of OLS growth regression analysis show that Kenya’s exports, imports and total trade are indeed positively related to the GDP with imports robustly explaining Kenya’s economic growth more than exports or total trade. For the gravity model, the study finds statistically significant positive coefficients with GDP, GDP per capita, dummy variables such as membership to regional economic or trade integration, common border factors and non-reciprocal trade arrangements. As expected a negative relation is realized between distance and growth in total trade. The study has also ascertained intuitively that Kenya’s trade pattern is in line with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. These results are broadly interpreted to be sources of desire to seek out more ways to strengthen the robustness depending on strength of relationship through appropriate policy formulation and implementation. The study equally describes, evaluates, conducts an objective measurement and presents an appraisal of the extent to which the government’s push for exports under the prevailing trade liberalization policy has achieved its development objective. Some of the recommendations for the trade liberalization policy objectives to be realized include, ensuring appropriate synergistic interaction of trade policy and other factors of production; need for adjustment programs upon policy change and implementation; initiating comprehensive and homegrown trade facilitation programs; appropriate use of safeguard measures to reap the potentials in the regional economic integration and a purge on poor governance, weak institutional arrangements and incidence of corruption.
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