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Special Graduate Schools
Graduate School of International Studies
Department of Energy Studies
3. Theses(Master)
IPCC TIER 1 APPROACH AND LEAP MODELING APPLICATION FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED ENERGY POLICIES OF AZERBAIJAN
- Author(s)
- BABAYEVA PARVANA
- Advisor
- Felver Troy Benjamin
- Department
- 국제대학원 융합에너지학과
- Publisher
- Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University
- Publication Year
- 2020-02
- Language
- eng
- Keyword
- Climate Change; LEAP
- Alternative Abstract
- The population of Azerbaijan grows by 1.1% per year (Government of Azerbaijan, 2015), and the average annual growth of GDP is 2.5% (Government of Azerbaijan, 2018). The larger population and the greater GDP lead to higher energy demand and much more GHG emissions. Thereby, these pose challenges for Azerbaijan to reduce GHG emissions as the country has committed to 35% decrease in GHG emissions by 2030 under the Paris agreement (Government of Azerbaijan, 2015). The research investigated the circumstance of Azerbaijan regarding the level of GHG emissions. The study described the GHG emissions trend for 1990-2015. The pattern illustrated the amount of CO2 dramatically decreased from 1990 to 1994, fluctuated from 1995 to 2009, and has increased continuously since 2010. The amount of CH4 decreased sharply from 1990 to 1994, fluctuated between 1994 and 2005. It surged following two years, while has maintained constant since 2008. There was minor fluctuation in the amount of N2O in the first twenty years of the study. It increased drastically from 2010 to 2014, while there was a slight drop in 2015. By applying LEAP, GHG emissions projection has been provided in three scenarios: without measures (WOM) scenario or business-as-usual, which did not take into account mitigation measures; with existing measures (WEM) scenario, which took into account the existing mitigation measures of Azerbaijan; EU policy scenario, which took into account the existing mitigation measures of EU. WOM scenario of total GHG emissions from the energy sector indicates that from 2010 to 2030, total emissions increase by 67% in Azerbaijan. In the WEM scenario, forecasted GHG emissions are only 29.7% lower than the base year of UNFCCC, where 1990 is considered as the base year. In EU policy scenario, projected GHG emissions are 37.2% lower than the base year of UNFCCC. Therefore, Azerbaijan can meet its commitment to the Paris if EU policy will be applied.
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