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Special Graduate Schools
Graduate School of International Studies
Department of International Trade
International Trade
3. Theses(Master)
IS THERE ANY RELATIONSHIP AMONG EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS, LABOR FORCES, EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE POLICY IN MYANMAR?
- Author(s)
- AYE THI KHAING
- Advisor
- Kim Tae Bong
- Department
- 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- Publisher
- Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University
- Publication Year
- 2018-02
- Language
- eng
- Keyword
- Economic Growth (GDP); Export (EX); Terms of Trade (TOT); Labor Forces (LBF); Augmented Dickey Fuller test; Cointegration test; VECM Model; Granger Causality test; Myanmar
- Alternative Abstract
- The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the relationship among Export-led growth hypothesis, labor forces, Exchange rate and Trade policy in Myanmar because of the trade performance for 54 years from 1962 to 2015 by using different methodologies and various econometric models to analyze the data series of export, import and GDP and different trade policy, export/ import policy and economic policy and Exchange rate and policy. The data of all variables are obtained from World Bank and UNCTAD. There is also relationship between the change for improved outcomes in trade policy reforms in Myanmar and the domestic polices practiced by the government of Myanmar and international demand. Looking gains from this study would be valuable references for the policy makers to identify the issues in the reform process. Myanmar GDP has been increasing year by year as Myanmar government operates a lot of reform processes, trade liberalization and trade policy review. The increasing of import is higher than the increasing of export as the foreign direct investment flow in a lot so there are trade deficits although GDP become increased. Because of these factors, I would like to analyze on the export, GDP, Terms of Trade and labor forces of Myanmar.This research paper analyzes the annual time series data for the period of 1981 to 2015 on GDP, export of goods and services, labor forces and terms of trade. The Export Granger-cause GDP at 5 % level so there is unidirectional causality running from export to economic growth depending on the selection of lag length two and as there is Export- led growth hypothesis in Myanmar, it is a small open economy. But there is no growth-led export in Myanmar as GDP does not Granger-cause on export. Export to GDP effects positively significant in long run but it effects negatively significant in short run. Moreover, other variables also effect positively significant to GDP in long run at the GDP growth model in one and two lags but in the Export model with three lags, there is positively significant long run relationship of the variables except terms of trade so the increasing of export depends on the increasing of import, trade policy reform, exchange rate and tariff and non-tariff barriers. Therefore, it can be analyzed that there is relationship among export-led growth hypothesis, labor forces, Exchange rate and trade policy in Myanmar. Keywords: Economic Growth (GDP), Export (EX), Terms of Trade (TOT), Labor Forces (LBF), Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Cointegration test, VECM Model, Granger Causality test, Myanmar
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